By Scott B, Editor
Islam Makhachev is currently a -360 favorite against Ian Machado Garry (+285) at UFC 330. Removing DraftKings’ vig, this implies a 75% win probability.
Bettors favor Makhachev largely for one thing: his elite top control. Over his 18-fight UFC career, the welterweight champion has spent 44.7% of his cage time in top position. But the market may be undervaluing Garry’s takedown defense.
Makhachev often uses the fence to finish takedowns, an area where Garry defends exceptionally well. And Makhachev has never faced an opponent as tall as the 6’3″ Garry—not even close.
Height can be a liability, too. In open space, Garry’s long legs and high hips leave him vulnerable, which may force Makhachev to rely on single- and double-leg takedowns away from the fence.
Garry’s counter to this is distance management—perhaps his greatest strength.
The statistical case for Garry
Garry boasts strong takedown defense. The 28-year-old Irishman has repelled 80% of attempts across 11 UFC fights. Seven opponents have failed to take him down even once, and none have landed than twice. Former champ Belal Muhammad ranks eighth all-time in welterweight takedowns but went 0-for-7 in a 2025 loss to Garry. Shavkat Rakhmonov pinned Garry to the cage for minutes at a time in their 2024 bout but nailed only two of 10 takedown attempts—both in open space.
Makhachev, who stands 5’10”, has never fought anyone as tall as Garry. The closest was 6’0″ Dan Hooker, whom he beat in 2021. Makhachev’s 16 other UFC opponents have ranged from 5’6″ to 5’11”.
Reach, another factor in distance management—favors Garry, too. His 74.5″ wingspan is longer than all but two of Makhachev’s former opponents. (Makhachev’s own reach is 70.5″.)
The statistical case for Makhachev
Most bettors favor Makhachev to win Saturday. It’s easy to see why.
The 34-year-old trains under world-class coach Javier Mendez, with UFC legend Khabib Nurmagomedov serving as his grappling mentor and cornerman.
Makhachev has lost just once in 29 professional fights and is on a 16-fight UFC win streak. He captured the UFC lightweight belt in 2022 and successfully defended it four times before vacating to challenge welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena in late 2025. Makhachev dismantled the Australian: going 4-for-4 on takedowns, outlanding him 140-30 in total strikes, and amassing 19:10 of control time.
A former combat sambo world champion, Makhachev does not rely on high takedown volume. He averages 2.3 per fight and has never landed more than five. But he doesn’t need a lot. Makhachev extracts an enormous amount of value from the takedowns he secures, averaging 2 minutes and 10 seconds in top position per successful attempt.
Heading into UFC 330, the critical question is not just whether Garry can keep Makhachev at distance in open space, but how quickly the striking specialist can get back up if taken down.
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