By Scott B

Earlier today, Kneebar News asked ChatGPT to predict the winners of UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy, a 13-fight card scheduled for April 5 in Las Vegas. We also asked it to forecast the method and round of victory for each winner.

God help us if the Emmett vs. Murphy fight card is as boring as ChatGPT forecasts. The artificial-intelligence tool believes underdogs will win only one of 13 bouts in Vegas. It also predicts that only three contests will end in a finish, with the remainder going to unanimous decision.

Following are ChatGPT’s predictions. Its forecast might change later in the week, such as if a fighter misses weight or is discovered to be dealing with an injury. Note that the odds shown below are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were current as of April 2 at 4:00pm ET.

If you’re interested in learning about ChatGPT’s methodology for predicting winners, see our explanation.

Now let’s rock.

Fight predictions

• Lerone Murphy (-340) def. Josh Emmett (+250) by UD in R5 (145 lb)
• Joanderson Brito (-250) def. Pat Sabatini (+190) by UD in R3 (145 lb)​
• Cortavious Romious (+112) def. Chang Ho Lee (-142) by KO in R1 (135 lb)​
• Kennedy Nzechukwu (-350) def. Martin Buday (+255) by KO in R1 (265 lb)​
• Brad Tavares (-260) def. Gerald Meerschaert (+196) by UD in R3 (185 lb)​
• Torrez Finney (-265) def. Robert Valentin (+200) by UD in R3 (185 lb)
• Luis Gurule (-280) def. Ode Osbourne (+210) by UD in R3 (125 lb)​
• Daniel Santos (-164) def. Davey Grant (+128) by UD in R3 (135 lb)​
• Dione Barbosa (-850) def. Diana Belbita (+500) by Sub in R2 (125 lb)​
• Daniel Frunza (-166) def. Rhys McKee (+130) by UD in R3 (170 lb)​
• Loma Lookboonmee (-800) def. Istela Nunes (+480) by UD in R3 (115 lb)​
• Victor Henry (-225) def. Pedro Falcao (+172) by UD in R3 (135 lb)​
• Talita Alencar (-113) def. Vanessa Demopoulos (-113) by UD in R3 (115 lb)

Key: UD=unanimous decision, SD=split decision, Sub=submission

Note: Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook website as of 4/2/2025 @ 4:00pm ET

In addition to asking ChatGPT to predict the winner of each fight on the Emmett/Murphy card, we instructed it to forecast each fighter’s path to victory—what the AI modeling program calls “the strategy or set of tactics that would give a fighter the best chance of winning a fight.”

Here are the projected paths to victory for each of the card’s 26 combatants.

Paths to Victory

Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight – 145 lb)

• Josh Emmett: Emmett’s best path to victory is landing his signature overhand right early. His power gives him the ability to finish the fight at any moment, especially if he pressures Murphy against the cage. Wrestling could also help slow down Murphy’s striking. (Return)
• Lerone Murphy: Murphy should use his technical striking and footwork to stay on the outside and pick apart Emmett with jabs and kicks. If he avoids Emmett’s power shots and counters effectively, he can secure a decision win over five rounds. (Return)

Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight – 145 lb)

• Pat Sabatini: Sabatini’s path to victory lies in his wrestling and submission game. He must take Brito down early, control him on the mat, and hunt for a rear-naked choke or armbar. Avoiding Brito’s power on the feet is crucial. (Return)
• Joanderson Brito: Brito should keep the fight standing and overwhelm Sabatini with his aggressive striking. If he pressures Sabatini and defends takedowns, he can land a knockout shot or control the exchanges to win a decision. (Return)

Cortavious Romious vs. Lee Chang-ho (Bantamweight – 135 lb)

• Cortavious Romious: Romious needs to utilize his speed and knockout power early. If he can close the distance and land heavy punches, he can finish Chang-ho quickly. (Return)
• Lee Chang-ho: Chang-ho should mix up his striking and grappling, wearing Romious down with clinch work and body shots. If he drags the fight into later rounds, his endurance could lead to a decision win. (Return)

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Martin Buday (Heavyweight – 265 lb)

• Kennedy Nzechukwu: Nzechukwu’s path to victory is using his reach advantage to keep Buday at bay with jabs and leg kicks. If he stays composed and times a counter, he can land a knockout. (Return)
• Martin Buday: Buday should close the distance and use clinch work against the cage. If he can get Nzechukwu to the ground or grind him out with dirty boxing, he can win by decision or late TKO. (Return)

Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert (Middleweight – 185 lb)

• Brad Tavares: Tavares should use his superior striking defense and movement to stay on the outside, landing combinations and avoiding Meerschaert’s takedowns. If he keeps the fight standing, he wins by decision. (Return)
• Gerald Meerschaert: Meerschaert must get the fight to the ground and work toward a submission. His best chance is pulling guard, chaining takedown attempts, and using his jiu-jitsu to find a choke. (Return)

Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight – 185 lb)

• Torrez Finney: Finney should use his explosive wrestling to take Valentin down early and impose his ground-and-pound. If he establishes top control, he can secure a TKO or submission. (Return)
• Robert Valentin: Valentin’s best path is keeping the fight on the feet, using footwork to avoid Finney’s takedowns. If he maintains distance and lands clean counter-strikes, he can win by knockout or decision. (Return)

Ode Osbourne vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight – 125 lb)

• Ode Osbourne: Osbourne should use his reach advantage and striking speed to outpoint Gurule from a distance. If he keeps moving and avoids getting taken down, he can secure a decision. (Return)
• Luis Gurule: Gurule’s best path is to apply relentless pressure, mix in takedowns, and force Osbourne into prolonged grappling exchanges. A ground-and-pound TKO is possible. (Return)

Davey Grant vs. Daniel Santos (Bantamweight – 135 lb)

• Davey Grant: Grant should push a high pace and use his unorthodox striking to keep Santos guessing. If he can create wild exchanges and land a power shot, he can score a knockout. (Return)
• Daniel Santos: Santos should mix in forward pressure with clinch work and takedowns. If he controls the fight in close range, he can wear Grant down and secure a late finish. (Return)

Dione Barbosa vs. Diana Belbita (Flyweight – 125 lb)

• Dione Barbosa: Barbosa’s best path to victory is getting the fight to the ground, where she can dominate with her jiu-jitsu. If she secures a takedown, she can work toward a submission finish. (Return)
• Diana Belbita: Belbita should use her striking volume and reach to keep Barbosa at a distance. If she controls the striking exchanges and avoids grappling, she can outpoint Barbosa to a decision win. (Return)

Daniel Frunza vs. Rhys McKee (Welterweight – 170 lb)

• Daniel Frunza: Frunza needs to close the distance quickly and take McKee down. If he can control the fight on the mat and wear McKee out, he can win via decision or submission. (Return)
• Rhys McKee: McKee should use his range to pick apart Frunza with straight punches and leg kicks. If he forces Frunza into prolonged striking exchanges, he can secure a knockout or decision. (Return)

Loma Lookboonmee vs. Istela Nunes (Strawweight – 115 lb)

• Loma Lookboonmee: Lookboonmee needs to utilize her elite Muay Thai skills to dominate striking exchanges. If she can clinch and land knees and elbows, she wins convincingly. (Return)
• Istela Nunes: Nunes should aim to counter Lookboonmee’s aggressive style and mix in takedowns. If she controls the fight from top position, she can edge out a win. (Return)

Victor Henry vs. Pedro Falcao (Bantamweight – 135 lb)

• Pedro Falcao: Falcao’s best strategy is landing takedowns and keeping Henry on his back. If he controls the grappling, he has a strong chance to win. (Return)
• Victor Henry: Henry should use his pace and striking volume to overwhelm Falcao. If he keeps the pressure high, he can secure a late finish or decision. (Return)

Talita Alencar vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (Strawweight – 115 lb)

• Talita Alencar: Alencar’s best chance to win is taking the fight to the ground early. Her elite jiu-jitsu gives her a strong chance to secure a submission if she can maintain top control. (Return)
• Vanessa Demopoulos: Demopoulos should keep the fight standing and use her striking advantage. If she pressures Alencar, avoids the takedown, and lands volume, she can take a decision win. (Return)

How does ChatGPT predict winners?

ChatGPT does not base its fight predictions on the opinions of gamblers, reporters, podcast hosts, or other online prognosticators.

Instead, the large-language model has developed its own algorithm based on six prediction factors, as shown in the table below. ChatGPT assigns a weight to each factor based on its historical impact on fight outcomes. Unless asked to adopt a gambler’s perspective by choosing underdogs it feels are undervalued, the program bases its forecasts solely on who it thinks will win.

Factor	Weight	Explanation
Stylistic Matchup: Striking vs. Grappling, Aggression vs. Counterpunching	35%	The most important factor. A bad stylistic matchup often determines the fight’s direction regardless of form or location.
Recent Events	20%	Momentum, training camps, and recent improvements play a big role in performance. Fighters on a skid may have lost confidence.
Historical Trends: Finishing Rate, Decision Rate, Susceptibility to KOs/Subs	20%	Past performances indicate how a fighter typically wins or loses. If they repeatedly fall to the same type of attack, it’s a strong indicator.
External Conditions: Altitude, Home Crowd, Fight Location, Weight Cuts	10%	Less influential than fighting skill, but factors like altitude can affect cardio-heavy fighters. Home crowd can sway judging in close fights.
Head-to-Head Matchup History	10%	If the fighters have faced each other before, past results provide insight. However, rematches often play out differently due to adjustments.
Miscellaneous X-Factors: Injuries, Short Notice Fights, Psychological Edge	5% *	Last-minute injuries, weight-cut issues, and fighter mentality (e.g., retirements, title shot stakes) can be unpredictable but sometimes decisive.

As an example, here is how ChatGPT concluded that Brandon Moreno would beat Steve Erceg by unanimous decision in the 5-round main event at UFC Mexico City on March 29, 2025.

• Stylistic Matchup (35%): Moreno is a well-rounded fighter with strong striking and scrambling ability, while Erceg is a grappling-heavy fighter. Moreno’s takedown defense and striking edge make this a bad matchup for Erceg.
• Recent Events(20%): Moreno is a former champ with experience in five-round wars, while Erceg is stepping up in competition. Edge to Moreno.
• Historical Trends (20%): Moreno has strong cardio and durability, making him hard to finish. Erceg has won via submission but against lower-ranked competition.
• External Conditions (10%): Fighting in Mexico could favor Moreno due to crowd energy, but altitude isn’t a major factor here.
• Head-to-Head History (10%): No prior fight.
• X-Factors (5%): Erceg is still improving, but Moreno’s experience edge is a big advantage.

For what it’s worth, ChatGPT’s prediction of the Moreno/Erceg bout was dead on: Moreno won by unanimous decision.

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