By Scott B
ChatGPT does not base its fight predictions on the opinions of gamblers, reporters, podcast hosts, or other online prognosticators.
Instead, the large-language model has developed its own algorithm based on six prediction factors, as shown in the table below. ChatGPT assigns a weight to each factor based on its historical impact on fight outcomes. Unless asked to adopt a gambler’s perspective by choosing underdogs it feels are undervalued, the program bases its forecasts solely on who it thinks will win.
| Factor | Weight | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Stylistic Matchup: Striking vs. Grappling, Aggression vs. Counterpunching | 35% | The most important factor. A bad stylistic matchup often determines the fight’s direction regardless of form or location. |
| Recent Events | 20% | Momentum, training camps, and recent improvements play a big role in performance. Fighters on a skid may have lost confidence. |
| Historical Trends: Finishing Rate, Decision Rate, Susceptibility to KOs/Subs | 20% | Past performances indicate how a fighter typically wins or loses. If they repeatedly fall to the same type of attack, it’s a strong indicator. |
| External Conditions: Altitude, Home Crowd, Fight Location, Weight Cuts | 10% | Less influential than fighting skill, but factors like altitude can affect cardio-heavy fighters. Home crowd can sway judging in close fights. |
| Head-to-Head Matchup History | 10% | If the fighters have faced each other before, past results provide insight. However, rematches often play out differently due to adjustments. |
| Miscellaneous X-Factors: Injuries, Short Notice Fights, Psychological Edge | 5% * | Last-minute injuries, weight-cut issues, and fighter mentality (e.g., retirements, title shot stakes) can be unpredictable but sometimes decisive. |
Source: ChatGPT, as prompted by Kneebar News
As an example, here is how ChatGPT concluded that Brandon Moreno would beat Steve Erceg by unanimous decision in the 5-round main event at UFC Mexico City on March 29, 2025.
- Stylistic Matchup (35%): Moreno is a well-rounded fighter with strong striking and scrambling ability, while Erceg is a grappling-heavy fighter. Moreno’s takedown defense and striking edge make this a bad matchup for Erceg.
- Recent Events(20%): Moreno is a former champ with experience in five-round wars, while Erceg is stepping up in competition. Edge to Moreno.
- Historical Trends (20%): Moreno has strong cardio and durability, making him hard to finish. Erceg has won via submission but against lower-ranked competition.
- External Conditions (10%): Fighting in Mexico could favor Moreno due to crowd energy, but altitude isn’t a major factor here.
- Head-to-Head History (10%): No prior fight.
- X-Factors (5%): Erceg is still improving, but Moreno’s experience edge is a big advantage.
For what it’s worth, ChatGPT’s prediction of the Moreno/Erceg bout was dead on: Moreno won by unanimous decision.
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